11월 6일 중간선거 결과,: 공화당은 상원의 우위를 유지하고 민주당은 8년 만에 하원 다수당을 되찾아 온 상황에서 CNBC 가 본 경제전망 요약:

세금과 이민, 건강보험 및 무역 등 트럼프 대통령이 추진하는 정책이 순탄하지만은 않을 것이다. 경제적 측면에서 지난 64년 동안 공화당 대통령인 경우, 중간선거에서 상원은 공화당, 하원은 민주당 승리 등, 엇갈린 결과가 나왔을 때 중간선거 후 1년 동안 경제지표가 최고로 좋다는 통계가 있다. 트럼프 대통령이 민주당의 하원승리를 인정하고 협조하며 하부구조(*기간산업)에 국가의 동력을 쏟을 때 경제적으로 좋은 효과가 있을 듯. 그러나 2020년 대선이 있는 상황에서 공화당이 돋보이는 일에 민주당이 기꺼이 동참해줄 지는 미지수. 또 하원 다수당이 된 민주당이 여세를 몰아 트럼프 대통령에 대한 조사와 탄핵절차 강행을 시도한다면 경색국면이 되어 경제도 어려워질 수 있다. 만에 하나 경기침체로 이어진다면 민주 공화 양당이 문제를 해결하기에 역부족일 듯.

뉴스영어 해설

https://youtu.be/iW3ixBkSKPk

CNBC


Democrats Will Win The House - How Will Markets Respond



민주당 하원 승리와 경제전망

Republicans have maintained control of the Senate but the Democrats have flipped enough seats in the House to win back control of one chamber of congress. That’s still enough to stall any major legislation that would advance Trump’s agenda. That includes major economic policies like taxes, immigration, health care or trade. So split control of Congress could bring 2 years of little progress in Washington. That might be okay if the economy keeps rolling along. That could even be good for markets. As Bank of America points out, since 1952 with a Republican in the White House, S&P 500 has performed best during the year after the mid-terms that produced mixed congress.




But in this partisan environment, the split congress could also raise the risk of government shut-downs, debt-ceiling fights and more. Then that could rattle confidence which is high right now by any measure. There is one area where you could see progress in this split congress: infrastructure. It’s possible that transactional Trump would reach out to Democrats to make a bipartisan deal. If that were to happen, it would surely be a boost to economy and markets would probably be pleased.

But Trump’s political reaction to Democrats’ winning the House
is of course a big wild card. Also do you think Democrats really
want to give Trump any wins ahead of the 2020 election? Democratic control of even the House could put more pressure on Trump, bringing new in investigations into his conflicts of interest and taxes. This scenario is probably where you’ll start hearing about potential impeachment proceedings.
And that uncertainty could rattle the market.
If the economy dips into recession, that would present
the new Congress with entirely different task and
it’s not clear that a split congress would be up for the challenge.