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Hitting China's Great Wall
"Hitting China's Wall" - NYTimes, Paul Krugman, July 18, 2013
"The signs are now unmistakable;China is in big trouble. The
country's whole way of doing business, the economic system that has driven three decades of incredible growth, has reached it's limits. You could say that the Chinese model is about to hit its Great Wall, and the only question now is just how bad the crash will be."
"China seems to invest only to expand its future ability to invest even more. America, admittedly on the high side, devotes
70% of its GDP to consumption; For China, the number is only
half that high, while almost half of GDP is invested.
"Indeed, the main thing holding down Chinese consumption seems to be that Chinse families never see much of the income being generated by the country's economic growth. Some of that income flows to a politically connected elite; but much of it simply stays bottled up in businesses, many of them state-owned enterprises.
"China just kept putting off the necessary changes, instead
boosting the economy by keeping the currency undervalued and flooding it with cheap credit.... These measures postponed the day of reckoning, but also ensured that this day would be even harder when it finally came. And it has arrived.
"Unfortunately, these aren't ordinary times: China is hitting its Lewis point at the same time that Western economies are going through their "Minsky moment," the point when overextended
private borrowers all try to pull back at the same time, and in so doing provoke a general slump. China's new woes are the last
thing the rest of us needed."
This article is the latest I feel we may come across an economic chaos grater than The Great Depression in 1930's.
What do you think, Zen Nirvana? The financial crisis in 2,007-2,008 seems just a prelude.
"The signs are now unmistakable;China is in big trouble. The
country's whole way of doing business, the economic system that has driven three decades of incredible growth, has reached it's limits. You could say that the Chinese model is about to hit its Great Wall, and the only question now is just how bad the crash will be."
"China seems to invest only to expand its future ability to invest even more. America, admittedly on the high side, devotes
70% of its GDP to consumption; For China, the number is only
half that high, while almost half of GDP is invested.
"Indeed, the main thing holding down Chinese consumption seems to be that Chinse families never see much of the income being generated by the country's economic growth. Some of that income flows to a politically connected elite; but much of it simply stays bottled up in businesses, many of them state-owned enterprises.
"China just kept putting off the necessary changes, instead
boosting the economy by keeping the currency undervalued and flooding it with cheap credit.... These measures postponed the day of reckoning, but also ensured that this day would be even harder when it finally came. And it has arrived.
"Unfortunately, these aren't ordinary times: China is hitting its Lewis point at the same time that Western economies are going through their "Minsky moment," the point when overextended
private borrowers all try to pull back at the same time, and in so doing provoke a general slump. China's new woes are the last
thing the rest of us needed."
This article is the latest I feel we may come across an economic chaos grater than The Great Depression in 1930's.
What do you think, Zen Nirvana? The financial crisis in 2,007-2,008 seems just a prelude.
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